Congratulations self-driving technology. You have graduated from “will it happen”, to “when will it happen”. Here’s why we should expect to see self-driving on our roads in 5 years or less.
- Hard-driving billionaires are on-board.
Elon, Sergey, and Travis are devoting tremendous mind-share and resources to accelerate the roll-out of self-driving initiatives. Tim, from that Cupertino company known for stealth initiatives, is also said to be hiring hundreds of engineers for their automotive effort.
Collectively, we have:
- the two most valuable public companies in the world,
- the most respected tech CEO since Steve Jobs, and
- the most valuable private company in the world
working to bring this technology to a main-stream audience.
Where we are today (6/6/2016)
Uber has already started testing self-driving vehicles in Pittsburgh. http://fortune.com/2016/05/19/uber-self-driving-car-pittsburgh/
Tesla drivers have been using auto-pilot technology since October 2014. Since that release date, Tesla has shipped a number of updates as they rapidly improve this technology.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600772/10-breakthrough-technologies-2016-tesla-autopilot/
Google is simulating 3 million driving miles every day. Google’s self-driving cars have driven 1.5 million real world miles, with only one well-documented, minor at-fault accident reported.
http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/1/10892020/google-self-driving-simulator-3-million-miles
2. Mayors and Governors want to be heroes.
Some of the most progressive politicians have used their mayoral or gubernatorial position to advance their agenda and burnish their legacy. Why? Gridlock in Washington. Many of the more progressive policies have begun at the local or state level.
The federal government has decided to stay on the sidelines in regards to regulating self-driving vehicles. Instead, they have allowed each state to come up with their own guidelines. We will likely see the self-driving vehicles first in metro areas where a technology-friendly mayor will look to establish their city as the model for others to follow. If implemented properly, a city adopting self-driving technology will be able to show how self-driving can effectively:
- reduce fatalities (especially drunk-driving and distracted driving accidents),
- reduce traffic congestion (more efficient routing and car pooling),
- reduce parking capacity (better yield on car usage),
- improve affordable public transportation for elderly, handicapped and under-served areas without reliable public transportation (solving the last mile issue to connect to major public transit options), and
- reduce pollution (remove cars from the roadways, electric vehicles).
3. The technology works.
Humans are decent drivers, but not great. A vehicle 100% focused on driving from point A to point B using a GPS enabled route should outperform a human driver in the areas of safety and route choice. Google’s self-driving cars have logged 1.5 million miles without a major accident reported. They have had a few fender benders where they were not at-fault, and only one at-fault accident with minor damage incurred.
A human will get into 1 major accident every 17.9 years, with the current cost of the accident cost averaging $23,450. With massive financial resources, C-level management support, brilliant scientists and engineers, and major competition from the key players, self-driving technology is improving by leaps and bounds every year.
Humans can no longer defeat machines in chess or Go. There is little reason to think that machines will not surpass humans in driving performance as well.
4. The economics work.
It begins with Uber, Lyft and public transportation agencies. The cost for human drivers are high. An estimate of the extra cost of a sale cost of a vehicle equipped with Lidar, GPS, and other necessary self-driving hardware may be $15K to $20K above the cost of one without that hardware. The cost of maintenance and software updates will also cost a chunk as well. However, when you compare those costs against the cost of a human driver paid a full-time salary, there is plenty of room for the cost and maintenance of the self-driving technology.
Uber calculates a driver working full-time will earn around $40,000 annually.
As self-driving technology improves and miniaturizes, economies of scale will reduce the cost of the hardware, software and maintenance.
5. The Chinese threat.
China has a major incentive to roll-out self-driving cars sooner than later. Congestion, dangerous drivers, pollution and lack of parking creates a perfect environment for a self-driving car initiative. The Chinese government is streamlining regulatory guidelines, encouraging Chinese auto manufacturers to develop the technology, and providing subsides for self-driving car buyers.
http://fortune.com/2016/04/23/china-self-driving-cars/
China has their own search giant leading the self-driving technology initiative. Baidu has been working on their initiative since 2013.
https://www.wired.com/2015/12/baidus-self-driving-car-has-hit-the-road/
What happened when Sputnik was launched in 1957? The US invested massively in our space program. Twelve years later, Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon.
If China takes the lead in self-driving, expect a robust US response. Government regulations will be greatly relaxed in order that we can compete in this critical technology race.
A race to glory
There is a lot at stake. Countries, technology companies, and automotive giants are all fighting to win a leadership position in self-driving technology. The winners will transform the transportation, automotive, and commerce industries. The losers will struggle to survive in this brave new world. For those late to the game, time to put the pedal to the metal.
