The startling correlations between guns, homicide, suicide and race
K. Ferriabough The data from the below reports supports your point that homicide rates were far worse in the 90’s (the report only goes back to 1993, where a shocking 30.1 Blacks (per 100,000) died of homicide, verus the still terrible 14.6 Blacks (per 100,000) homicide deaths in 2010). Below you will see a short analysis of the data from the report.
This post was originally conceived to be a study to determine if a link existed between gun ownership and gun violence. After reviewing the data, it became clear that race plays a far more significant factor in homicide than gun ownership rates. Although I presented a few assumptions, I mostly intended to allow the data to speak. I hope I acheived this purpose.
The firearms-related homicide rates for Black victims is far higher than any other race. For people paying attention, that is not a surprise. What is surprising is how much greater the rates are. Another correlation that is shocking is the firearms-related suicides rates for Whites.
The data provides some insight, but it also leaves many questions unanswered.
Let’s tackle the suicide issue first. There has been research to show a measurable link between gun ownership and suicide rates.
Higher gun ownership linked to higher rates of suicide
Asian suicides are high despite low firearm ownership and suicides with firearm rates
The rate of Asian/Pacific Islander suicides is surprisingly high considering the relatively low rate of gun ownership and suicides with firearms. The likely explanation is a culture of suicide as an acceptable norm among many Asian cultures. Even so, Asians suicide rates are still only 45% of that of Whites.
Race, gun ownership and homicide rates
As we look at the homicide rates, we see how strongly race impacts homicide rates. The correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates does not play out as it does for suicide rates.
Contrasting Asians and Whites for homicide and suicide involving firearms
Although we don’t have a reliable figure on percentage of Asian household who own guns, we can assume that the ownership rates are low relative to other races. Considering that White households have the highest level of gun ownership, we might expect to see a sharp contrast in homicide rates between Asians and Whites. Surprisingly, Whites are only nominally more likely to die of a homicide involving a firearm than Asians. By contrast, Whites are 4.9X more likely to die of suicide with a firearm than Asians.
Homicide impacts Blacks and Latinos far more significantly
Blacks are 10.4X more likely to die of homicide than Whites. Latinos are 2.7X more likely to die of homicide than Whites. The fact that Blacks and Latinos would have higher rates of homicide victims is not overly surprising. It is understood that our inner cities have higher rates of poverty, gang violence, unemployment, and drug and alcohol abuse. In 2010, the US census showed that the average household incomes was $30,134 for Black households, $34,241 for Latino households, $48,977 for White households, and $57,518 for Asian households.
Conclusion 1: We have a problem with our homicide rates for Black Americans
The large difference in homicide victim levels for Latinos and Blacks is surprising and reason for concern. Blacks are 3.8X more likely to be victims of a homicide involving a firearm than Latinos. Deeper analysis of the homicide problem in the Black community is required to understand the causation for the problem. This post can only conclude that there is a troubling correlation between race and victims of homicide.
Conclusion 2: White households should reconsider their gun ownership
Whites are 6.8X more likely to die of a suicide involving a firearm, than a homicide involving a firearm. Asians are 1.7X more likely to die of a suicide involving a firearm, than a homicide involving a firearm. The data supports the notion that guns do not make households safer. Researchers have shown that people living in households with guns are 2 to 3 times more likely to die of suicide.
Source data
The primary data was taken from the following reports.
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf
